Welcome to the archived 2022's Midterm Predictions.
Predictions Aggregated
Combining 5 notable sources as a baseline for the HQ's in-house equation:
The Dems Hub Aggregated Predictions Score,
or DAP Score for short.
2022 DAPS Accuracy Total: 17/20 | 85%
Considerations: An encouraging first score for the HQ! I definitely need to tweak the formula for House-level races. It'll be very interesting to see how this goes for 2024. Making moves!
A score above 50.0 higher indicates that race is likely to be won by Democrats.
Anything under 50.0 points means that race will likely be lost by Democrats.
A score of 50.0 says that race is a coin-flip.
*The scores with each source are my own derivations - not a number pulled from the source.
Let's see what will unfold!!
...AS OF OCTOBER 5, 2022...
CONGRESS
SENATE
270toWin: 50 +/- 1
FiveThirtyEight: 67
Cook Political Report: 50 +/- 1
Politico Forecast: 50 +/- 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 50 +/- 1
DAP: 53.4 (+/- 4)
HOUSE
270toWin: 49 +/- 1
FiveThirtyEight: 31
Cook Political Report: 45
Politico Forecast: 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 47 +/- 3
DAP: 38.4 (+/- 2)
SENATE
FLORIDA
270 to Win: 40
Five-Thirty-Eight: 25
Cook Political Ratings: 40
Politico Forecast: 40
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 25
GEORGIA
270 to Win: 50
Five-Thirty-Eight: 50
Cook Political Ratings: 50
Politico Forecast: 50
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 50
NEVADA
270 to Win: 50
Five-Thirty-Eight: 50
Cook Political Ratings: 50
Politico Forecast: 50
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 50
NEW HAMPSHIRE
270 to Win: 70
Five-Thirty-Eight: 75
Cook Political Ratings: 60
Politico Forecast: 65
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 65
PENNSYLVANIA
270 to Win: 60
Five-Thirty-Eight: 60
Cook Political Ratings: 50
Politico Forecast: 50
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 70
GOVERNORSHIPS
ARIZONA
270 to Win: 50
Five-Thirty-Eight: 50
Cook Political Ratings: 50
Politico Forecast: 50
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 50
GEORGIA
270 to Win: 40
Five-Thirty-Eight: 40
Cook Political Ratings: 40
Politico Forecast: 45
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 40
MARYLAND
270 to Win: 90
Five-Thirty-Eight: 85
Cook Political Ratings: 90
Politico Forecast: 85
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 90
MICHIGAN
270 to Win: 75
Five-Thirty-Eight: 85
Cook Political Ratings: 75
Politico Forecast: 60
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 75
TEXAS
270 to Win: 25
Five-Thirty-Eight: 30
Cook Political Ratings: 33
Politico Forecast: 40
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 33
HOUSE
CALIFORNIA-45
270 to Win: 40
Five-Thirty-Eight: 33
Cook Political Ratings: 40
Politico Forecast: N/A
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 40
COLORADO-08
270 to Win: 50
Five-Thirty-Eight: 40
Cook Political Ratings: 45
Politico Forecast: N/A
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 40
IOWA-01
270 to Win: N/A
Five-Thirty-Eight: N/A
Cook Political Ratings: 40
Politico Forecast: N/A
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 25
MICHIGAN-03
270 to Win: 60
Five-Thirty-Eight: 70
Cook Political Ratings: 60
Politico Forecast: N/A
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 60
NEW MEXICO-02
270 to Win: 50
Five-Thirty-Eight: 45
Cook Political Ratings: 45
Politico Forecast: N/A
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 45
NEW YORK-02
270 to Win: N/A
Five-Thirty-Eight: N/A
Cook Political Ratings: 15
Politico Forecast: N/A
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 25
OHIO-13
270 to Win: 50
Five-Thirty-Eight: 15
Cook Political Ratings: 55
Politico Forecast: N/A
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 55
TEXAS-15
270 to Win: 40
Five-Thirty-Eight: 51
Cook Political Ratings: 15
Politico Forecast: 40
Sabato's Crystal Ball: 25
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