ELECTIONS PREDICTIONS
Rating Elections
as the HQ expands in coming years, sections like this one will become more elaborate, methodical, and will provide the research/data utilized more effectively
HOUSE PREDICTIONS
DEMS FLIP THE HOUSE
Dems +2 House seats.
(I'll try to get time to add some details here today, Nov 5!)
SENATE RATINGS 2024: V.2
>> AZ, MI to LEAN BLUE as Gallego, Slotkin hold solid leads over their respective opponents.
>> MT to RED-ISH with Democratic Sen. Jon Tester facing an uphill fight as the Dem incumbent in deep-Red Montana. If Democrats were to lose the Montana Senate seat, that would require 2 more seats to be picked up for Democrats to hold the Senate (assuming VP Kamala Harris wins the Presidency, which would hand Tim Walz the Senate's tie-breaking vote). Florida and Texas would be 2 of the best pick-up options if Senator Tester loses in Montana, so Democrats know the value of retaining this MT Senate seat.
>> TX to RED-ISH with Colin Allred showing remarkable strength with voters and continuing to gain momentum. We'll see how this holds through the end of September and if he can make additional gains against nationally mocked incumbent Ted Cruz in a state with heavy voter suppression efforts from Republicans.
>> NE (Sen. Fischer) TO LEAN RED with Independent Dan Osborn adeptly, consistently refusing Democratic Party endorsements. A poll from Survey USA been trending that shows Dan Osborn polling only 1 point behind incumbent - which makes this appear like an unquestionably flippable seat. The key here is that 23% of voters polled are undecided, with GOP incumbent Sen. Fischer getting 39% and Dan Osborn (I) getting 38%. On the other hand, the Split Ticket polling is in line with previous polling (YouGov, Red Wave Strategies) that show this race closer than most expected.
It's definitely too close for comfort for the GOP and their 2-term incumbent Sen. Fischer, but more data's needed in coming weeks to even consider pushing this race farther than LEAN RED. In July, Morning Consult's survey ranked her the 8th most unpopular Senator (with a net positive rating). Senator Fischer's team is supposed to be doing additional September polling, and her last one in July showed her up 26 points against Dan Osborn (I) and the 3rd party candidate at the time, who has since dropped out. While biased polling is anathema to quality analysis, this also remains a unique election cycle with microcosms of that uniqueness giving Dems added hope all over the map.
Nebraska's up there with the very deepest of Red States, which is why this race being even remotely competitive has Democrats daring to dream. Let's wait a spell to see if the Trump campaign's desperate quest to switch Nebraska's electoral vote system has any kind of radiating effect here in the Cornhusker State, too. Oh, and Nebraska's Legal Marijuana Now Party is apparently trying to get the NE Democratic Party to field a write-in candidate, which would be antithetical to keeping the Senate Blue. Wouldn't make sense for NE Dems to take that bait with no path to an NE Senate victory for a Democrat this cycle.
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